Erratic rains leave EA worried of poor 2009 grain harvest...

East African Community countries are threatened with a shortfall in grain production made worse by erratic rains this year.

For example, Kenya’s preliminary forecast for maize production for 2009 is 2.4 million tonnes — 90 per cent below the average of the 2008 long rains season.

According to the Eastern Africa Grain Council (EAGC) — Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network (Ratin), insufficient rainfall during the initial stage of the main cropping season (March-April) hindered crop growth, increasing the probability of yet another poor harvest.

However, production estimates are favourable in western growing regions bordering Lake Victoria, which received near normal rainfall from March to June.

Parts of Trans Nzoia (Kitale) and Nandi North (Mosop, Aldai and Lessos) are also expected to get a good crop this year.

Between January and July, Kenya had imported approximately 1.06 million tonnes of maize through the Mombasa port.

Informal cross border statistics maintained by EAGC-Ratin show that 50,725 tonnes and 1,147 tonnes of maize and rice respectively crossed into Kenya from Tanzania between January and July 2009.

While 120,112 tonnes of maize and 81,918 tonnes of beans crossed from Uganda during the same period.

The demand for maize from Uganda is low due to availability of cheaper duty free imported maize from South Africa.

The import parity price for Busia (Uganda)-Nairobi at the moment is $376 per tonne compared with $325 per tonne for Durban-Nairobi.

The story is no different when it comes to wheat whose production in most parts of the North Rift is set to decline due to erratic rainfall that has disrupted planting.

Ministry of Agriculture projections indicate that the North Rift will produce about 4 million bags of wheat against the country’s annual consumption of 11 million bags.

In Tanzania, most of the areas have started harvesting maize, paddy rice and sorghum.

Cereal production is expected to be low in 2008/09 season due to limited input utilisation caused by high fertiliser costs and low rainfall for two consecutive seasons.

Cereal production is expected to reach 5,265,309 tonnes against cereal requirements of 6,578,508 tonnes.